It’s that time of year again, and it seems like Art Basel Miami Beach has arrived even quicker than usual. This year’s event marks the 22nd edition and comes at a significant moment for the art market. The year has been filled with discussions about a challenging market that started softening in 2023 due to various factors such as high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties. The recent auctions in New York offered a glimmer of hope, but what the future holds for the market in 2025 remains to be seen.
As art professionals head to South Florida for the event, many are noticing a recalibration of the market. Galleries are presenting a wide selection of works at various price points to appeal to a broader audience. There seems to be a shift in buying trends, with a focus on middle-range priced works and changes in aesthetics and politics. The market may still be soft, but exhibitors are adapting by bringing material that has proven successful in the past year.
The prices of artworks at previews seem more in line with the current market, with galleries showing more flexibility in pricing secondary market works. There is something for everyone at every price point, from works priced in the millions to more accessible pieces for young collectors. While primary market prices remain inflated, the secondary market has seen a healthy readjustment, providing opportunities for collectors to build impressive collections.
Overall, the quality of material at Art Basel Miami Beach remains high, and the event is shaping up to be an important arena for the art market. We have been particularly impressed by the wide range of mid-tier and secondary market works available this year, exceeding what we typically see at Frieze New York or Los Angeles. The fair features a diverse selection, from high-quality secondary market pieces to intriguing emerging artists and rediscovered historical figures from around the world. We are especially excited to see these discoveries in person.
Quality works are still in demand and, in many cases, are selling even before the fair begins. However, we have been surprised by the continued high pricing of primary market works, especially from younger artists who experienced significant success during the pandemic. Despite softer demand, we have not yet seen a significant price correction for these artists.
ARTnews: What are you looking forward to at the fair?
Saracino Fendi: This is Bridget Finn’s first Art Basel Miami Beach as director, so I am looking forward to seeing her take on the fair. I have always admired her eye for younger artists and her support of younger galleries. There are many new galleries from different regions that have been added, which I hope brings new energy and freshness to the event. She is changing the layout and the curated sections, so this will be interesting to see. Collectors are seeking new material, whether by well-known artists or emerging ones. I always hope for a moment of education and discovery at every fair.
Cromwell: I am excited to see some new galleries at Art Basel. They have accepted the largest number of new galleries in years. The price diversification might be a result of this influx of new participants.
Smith Sweeney & O’Callaghan: We are eager to see the work of Eva Helene Pade at Nicolai Wallner and Thaddaeus Ropac, the Haas Brothers’ tree sculpture at Marianne Boesky, Paulo Nimer Pjota at François Ghebaly and Mendes Wood DM, a monumental Olafur Eliasson sphere work at Neugerriemschneider, Philip Guston’s Two Hearts at Hauser & Wirth, and Agnes Pelton at Michael Rosenfeld.
Sokoloff: I am always drawn to the Survey, Nova, and Positions sectors. There is a risk in introducing lesser-known artists to a broader market, and I find it exciting to visit, learn, and assess the market for these works.
Barrish: Generally, at the fair, I look forward to learning about a new artist or gallery program that is unfamiliar to me.
Teeters: The previews look promising, and the quality seems relatively high. I look forward to discovering some gems that I did not see in the previews. I always appreciate when galleries surprise me with something unexpected in their booths. I am not looking forward to any gallery trying to replicate the theater and spectacle of Maurizio Cattelan’s Comedian.
ARTnews: Speaking of a work that debuted at ABMB back in 2019 and recently sold for $6.24 million at Sotheby’s, how indicative are the November auctions in predicting how Art Basel Miami Beach will perform?
Teeters: The auctions went well, and the atmosphere was positive. I believe the enthusiasm and willingness to buy will carry over to Miami. There are people waiting on the sidelines to see where the market settles, and I think they are now re-entering the market.
Smith Sweeney & O’Callaghan: The November New York auction market seems to have adjusted more effectively to current conditions. Estimates have been lowered to stimulate demand, and the number of lots has been reduced, leading to stronger buying across both day and evening sales. Galleries, however, often lack the same pricing flexibility and are tied to the pricing expectations of their contemporary artists, making it harder for them to adapt quickly to market shifts. We expect that high-quality, in-demand artists will continue to perform well, along with emerging artists with more accessible price points.
Barrish: The sales in November far exceeded expectations. I anticipate active sales at ABMB and optimistic collectors. I also expect a return to interest in historical works.
Sokoloff: With so many auctions throughout the year, just looking at the November sales is no longer enough to predict how a fair will perform. Art Basel Miami Beach attracts a wide range of collectors from around the world, each with their own perspective on the market. It is more of a wave that galleries and buying groups ride as they navigate the market at the fair.
Saracino Fendi: The auctions showed that there are buyers for strong examples of blue-chip and fresh-to-the-market works that are well-priced. I noticed a significant decrease in young emerging artists in the sales, which leads me to believe that the material at the fair will be different from what we saw in November.
Cromwell: Auctions set the tone, but Paris Art Basel is a better indicator of how Art Basel Miami Beach will perform. Die Auktionshäuser haben im November eine lobenswerte Arbeit geleistet, indem sie Schätzungen angepasst haben, die solide Renditen erbracht haben, daher ist die Stimmung gut.